Welcome to a baby born at 416ppm CO2 and overshoot

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Welcome to a baby born at 416 ppm CO2 on the day that COP26 was meeting in Glasgow. This was said to be the last chance to turn around runaway climate change. Mind you they said that last time and the time before.

Newborn baby

You were born on the first day of COP26 –the 1st of November, 2021. I am sorry to say this, but this is what you are likely to see during your lifetime.

If you live in Auckland, New Zealand the number of hot days in summer is increasing. And I guess you will be glad you are not in remote Oodnadatta, South Australia which spends its summers in the late 40s and has a record of 50.7 degrees. It’s impossible to go outside or work outside there. The maximum temperature if you were born in Death Valley, California was 54.4 degrees last July.

Or you might live in Brisbane which got up to 37 and 38 degrees in 2017 and 2018. You have to stay inside and have air conditioning. But don’t try living in a place that is vulnerable to sea rise. Those marinas with their fancy houses look alluring now, but they will face bigger storms and higher seas. Maybe they will be gone by the time you are an adult. And you will see a lot of bushfires in your life. And your hail stones will be big. The year you were born they had one in the Sunshine Coast that was 16 cm wide.

Overshoot

But life isn’t all about heat waves, bushfires, coastal erosion and extreme storms. Let’s talk about the economy, about buying things and having enough food and shelter and essentials of life.

You have been born in a time when the whole world has had a Covid-19 pandemic for nearly two years. It’s given the global economy a heart attack. Mind you the global economy was very vulnerable even before Covid.

The fact is we have had a just-in-time global supply chain where goods get shipped and trucks all over the world and it’s worked up till two years ago. But now things are different and there is little hope it can be fixed any time soon.

So when you are a child, countries and communities all over the world will be scrambling to manufacture essential goods as near home as possible. I hope they make clothes and grow good food near you. Please don’t waste good land grazing animals to feed. They use too much water and pollute it, as well as using too much land. Besides eating animal protein is not good for your health. I only just found that out when I was 80 but you might as well know now.

The other thing, sorry to say, you have been born as the world faces up to the fact that the flammable fossils we found in the ground 250 years ago are now harder to get. Or at least they take more energy to get them.

We used to call these fossil fuels –oil, natural gas and coal. In fact, your state of Queensland has had a lot of high-grade coal mines and up till a year ago you shipped it to China. But human beings have binged big-time on these flammable fossils. It is now warming the climate and causing more frequent floods and storms and heatwaves. Sorry about that.

I don’t suppose you will get to see much of the coral reefs, but hopefully they will be around in some form for a few years.

The global economy

I mentioned before that oil, gas and coal have been used. They have helped your parents, grandparents and great great-great-grandparents live in an age of huge expansion. We have used up the easy to get oil, gas and coal and now we are at the stage where it is taking so much energy to extract them that we don’t get the return we used to get a century ago.

Consequently we are digging more wells deeper into the sea and going for the oil sands and hard-to-extract stuff. Darn!! They were so useful. In fact, they still are. When you were born, 84% of the energy humans used came from this magic stuff. We run our diesel trucks and ships on them and we rely on them.

But they also, when burnt for driving cars or heating furnaces, they sent a huge amount of gases high up into the air and this blanket around the earth is making it warmer. That is causing all the storms, rising seas, melting ice, extra big hail, extra heavy rain, prolonged droughts and bushfires. Yes, you will see so much of that and I am sorry I was part of a generation that was complicit in this awful situation.

The Banks have too much power today

It is utterly tragic of course that we have allowed the commercial banks to have so much influence on what we mine, manufacture and grow. They have so much responsibility for this megacrisis and we haven’t reined them in. In fact few people are even aware of their dangerous influence.

Several scholars have written now that we have reached the peak of world oil extraction. Nate Hagens and White wrote in their 2021 book Reality Blind that the peak in oil extraction was in October 2018. That means there will be less every year now. Mind you the prices will still fluctuate but it is resulting in high inflation because we have relied on cheap oil for two centuries now.

And natural gas and coal are dearer too, resulting in power cuts in many places like China, Germany, the US and the UK. You will grow up with power cuts in Australia I am afraid because the solar and wind power won’t be regular. You will be frantically trying to buy enough metals to rebuild them before long.

Don’t get blinded by technology

And if you try using hydrogen you will soon learn you get less out of it than you put in and the plants will be abandoned. In fact, if Morrison and his government stay in, they will put their faith in other unproven technologies like carbon capture and storage (CCS) that are either going to make things worse or will waste money or both.

You see we have an economic system that is reliant on having more energy. It can’t grow without more energy every year and it is set up to grow. That way it works. If it doesn’t grow there are employment problems that have to be solved. So you will grow up in an age of contraction of the world economy and because it will be unplanned, it will be fast and steep. You won’t be able to buy everything you want. There will be shortages. It will be the age of resourcefulness.

So make friends with lots of skills. Train as an electrician, a plumber, an organic farmer, a person who mends things, a person who is practical. Surround yourself with people who know things and can help each other and the community around them. Surround yourself with people who don’t drain you of energy. Make friends with kind, compassionate people, people who understand how nature works and that human beings are a vulnerable species with huge potential for compassion, innovation and heroism.

You will see a lot of sadness. Tragedies will be common.

Now suppose you are my great-grandchild. Challenges will abound, but you are bred for it. Your grandfather has been skilled with his hands all his life and has made do with little. Your great grandfather John was a doctor and his father Les was a fabulous gardener. Les’s father was a skilled bricklayer. His grandmother and great aunts were humorous and alert, always aware of who is doing what.

On our side you get me, then my mother who cooked, sewed, knitted and gardened to care for her six daughters. My father was a minister on a small salary who learned things from books and was wise. My grandfather and grandmother came to New Zealand with three little children. When my grandmother was young, she wheeled her pram into town with a toddler in front and bought stuff for her meals every day because they didn’t have a fridge and were poor. 

I am sure your mother will fill you in with her side of the family and then there is all your father’s side to enquire about. Find out about their lives and how they struggled. You will struggle, but in a different economy, a different time and a completely different climate.  So remember all these people came before you. Think about them. 

Food

Don’t expect to live in a city all your life. There will be many more going to the country to grow food and live in small communities. Be a leader in a small community. You will have to learn how to grow your own food and adapt your practices for the climate.